One of the things that concerns me in a recovering economy is the price of oil. In the United States, due to our failure to diversify into other sources of energy, we have a serious addiction to oil which puts us at the mercy of other countries, some of which are not exactly friendly with us.
When the economy was just about to go south in 2008, the price of oil was well over $100 per barrel, more like almost $150. When the economy went way south, the price of oil collapsed under $50 a barrel. Today it’s about $80 a barrel.
Keeping the price of oil down is going to be key to this economic recovery; in the meantime, the U.S.–and the rest of the industrialized world–desperately need to figure out other ways to power our future besides oil, something we’ve failed at forever despite being aware of the need all the way back to the 1970s.
The jobs number is not about Apple and Steve Jobs; rather it’s the number of jobs created or lost in the United States every month. With the unemployment rate still near a horrid 10%, it’s concerning that despite improvements in corporate earnings and the stock market, there still doesn’t appear to be more jobs on the way.
It is, of course, quite possible that part of the reason why we have seen improvements in corporate earnings and the stock market is because there are fewer employees for companies to pay for, but it’s tough to imagine that an economic recovery is sustainable without more jobs.
And for those of you who are out of work, I’m certain there’s nothing you want more than a job to work. So here’s hoping we’ll see the light at the end of this tunnel starting with this week’s jobs report.
After Furlough Fridays (which affect just about all state of Hawai’i employees but most equate with schools), apparently it’s believed that more blood can be squeezed out of the rock that is known as the public school system.
The Hawai’i legislature asked for 5% more in spending cuts for public schools; they were presented with about half that. Which means $37.7 million dollars.
It’s hard to imagine that the schools can endure much more without considerably negative effects to the education of our schoolchildren. As they say in the poorest countries of the world–we can’t afford education, but we really can’t afford to be uneducated.
Government budgets continue to be ugly. Not only are our state employees furloughed many Fridays through our year, now programs are outright being cut. In particular, performing art programs.
For instance, the 127 year old Hawaii County Band on the big island is reported to be unfunded in the budget coming out on Monday, March 1, 2010, reducing their spending by 1%. Kaimuki High School’s performing arts program is reportedly facing a similar fate.
I’m sure there’s no one out there who is going to say they want these programs to end, but I’m also sure that something has to give and figuring out what it is is not an easy task for anyone.
Tough times call for tough decisions. What to cut, what to cut? It’s a decision that very few of us want to make.
Despite the many months long rally in the stock market, lets face it: it’s still tough economic times out there for many. But what’s amazing is that even in these difficult times, people are still willing to give to causes.
The recent natural disaster in Haiti has caused a surge in giving. More than $22 million dollars was raised just by people donating with text messaging–an amazing number, and now people (including me) are also donating via iTunes, as well as many other ways.
All of this while we are still having much financial difficulty as time goes on.
I also include in this my Livestrong Challenge effort, which has not even included my friends who I know in real life (as opposed to virtually) yet. All of the over $1K in donations I’ve received have been from the online world–an amazing number.
People still, even in tough times, know others have it more difficult than they do and give–and that gives me hope for the entire human race.
Government employees–with the possible exception of those in the Federal system at least in certain jobs–typically accept less money in salary for better benefits and better job security. Unfortunately, not only are their benefits being cut, at least here, their salaries have been cut with Furlough Fridays.
So it’s not surprising that many government employees are looking for other work, whether it be a second job (many teachers already do things like tutoring to supplement their income) or a whole other one in the private sector that pays better.
Let’s face it: a pay cut is difficult for just about anyone to swallow, and the 8% or so the various state employees have taken–one out of every 12 or so cents made–is a pretty large and unpleasant lump in anyone’s throat. So it’s no wonder that employees have started looking elsewhere.
There could be positives to this, at least for the employees. Some may start fantastic part time businesses or find great jobs that let them do things they like for money, like crafts or photography. But all of these are going to take at least some time and energy from their primary jobs.
It’s hard to believe that is in the best interest of the state as an employer.
While those of us in Hawaii who have issues with Furlough Fridays concentrate their attention on school children losing instructional days, there are many other state employees besides those in the schools. I work with several agencies–the Department of Human Services and the Department of Health primarily–that are also affected by Furlough Fridays.
This means that every few Fridays–which I’m never really sure is an actual Furlough Friday–I can’t reach anyone in those departments, save for the mandated 24 hour on call Child Welfare Services worker.
I can’t tell you how much time I’ve wasted trying to get in touch with workers in these departments when they really are off. And I’m sure I’m not the only one.
It doesn’t end there either. I can easily tell you when are great times to go to, for instance, the Kane’ohe Public Library–Monday and Wednesday nights or after 10 am on Sundays. But now I’m never sure if that’s quite correct anymore.
But for me, this is just inconvenience. It’s worse for the employees who are making less money than they used to, especially if they were just getting by already.
Facing furloughs (”Furlough Friday” has become a common phrase here in Hawai’i), many eligible government workers have decided to retire instead.
Let’s face it: staying in a job where you face an uncertain income future versus the safety of retirement and the possibility of finding other work if you choose to makes retirement more appealing. Of course, I’m of the opinion that early retirement is a good thing–I have found the earliest retirement date at my current job and I’m sticking to that as my plan.
Whether this will help the state financially or hurt it instead is not yet clear. But I’m pretty sure this is an unintended consequence of trying to cut back on the government payroll.
In comparison to the climbing stock markets, one thing that has lost serious ground this year is the United States dollar. Still the world standard, the good old U.S. greenback has fallen on very hard times, recently trading at 85 yen to the dollar–a 14 year low.
The government of the United States has maintained for year that it favors a strong dollar, yet it’s done about zero to actually build up the dollar versus other currencies. In fact, the U.S. could be accused of benign neglect in terms of its upkeep of the dollar.
While it’s still unclear how all of this will play out–I for one am not bailing out of dollars–this is unquestionably one thing that’s not held its value well as of late.
This month the stock market started on a negative note, after going almost straight up since March of this year. While there was a bit of a leveling off earlier in this rally, no substantial correction has happened since March, and the benchmark S&P 500 is up 18.66% for the year.
I thought October might be the month that some kind of correction happened, but as of right now, the S&P 500 bounced off of a couple of poor showings and is now again up for the month, this time 1.57% about a third of the month in.
Interestingly, there’s actually more optimism about the economy than I’ve seen in quite some time. More and more often I’m hearing declarations that the recession is over. It may indeed be, despite the ridiculous unemployment rate right now. Hopefully the optimism will continue to carry the stock market to new highs.
