Dec 31st, 2007
How’d My Individual Stocks Do, 2007 Edition?
While the vast majority of my money that’s invested are in a few different mutual funds, I do have a smaller portion of my portfolio in individual stocks where I try to beat the market. Note that I really don’t believe that it’s possible to beat the market in the long term, but that doesn’t keep me from trying with a small portion of my portfolio, and when I small, I do mean small–all of these stocks combined total less than 10% of my total portfolio and a lot less of my net worth.
So here’s how the stocks I owned did in 2007, sorted by performance:
Adjusted Ticker Price (1/1/07) Price (12/31/07) Gain/Loss IAR $27.33 $17.56 -35.75% ACAS $42.31 $32.96 -22.10% TM $134.31 $106.17 -20.95% WFC $34.37 $30.19 -12.16% PFE $24.74 $22.73 -8.12% T $34.46 $41.56 20.60% MO $61.84 $75.51 22.11% VZ $35.75 $43.69 22.21% MRK $42.31 $58.11 37.34% AAPL $84.84 $198.08 133.47%
About half of my holdings not just lagged the index, but lost money in 2007. IAR, also known as Idearc, Inc., was a one time dividend from my Verizon holdings. I don’t think I would have bought it outright. ACAS, American Capital Strategies, is a private equity firm that pays a substantial dividend. TM, which is Toyota, has baffled me. It’s a dividend paying company that is either the number one or two auto maker in the world and has been nicely profitable for a long time. It has, however, really underperformed this year. I am not planning on selling my shares, however. WFC, Wells Fargo, is a bank that we don’t have in HI (aside from its mortgage services); my friends who have banked with them have been less than thrilled with their customer service, but it pays a healthy dividend. Like many financial stocks, it has suffered this year, but not as badly as many others. Pharmaceutical giant Pfiezer (PFE) has not really done well in the two years I’ve owned them.
For the ones that have done well this year, the two telecom companies (T, aka AT&T, and VZ, aka Verizon) have done quite nicely for some time; I’m not sure I’m sold on these companies long term, and I really have a philosophical dislike of telephone and cable companies, so I’m not sure how long I’ll hold onto them. Altria (MO), the former Philip Morris, is a long term holding of mine that spun off Kraft this year (which I sold); its opening price is adjusted for the spinoff. Merck (MRK) is the other pharmaceutical company I own, and it did considerably better than Pfiezer did–I’ve owned this about the same amount of time as I’ve owned Pfiezer and I think it has become a long term holding. And finally, Apple (AAPL), which gets its own paragraph.
I originally thought about buying into AAPL (well, recently; I thought about it back in the 1980s when I was in college and had less than no money) in the summer of 2006, when I was on my way home from KansasFest. I took a look at a share price in the high 50s and believed that it was very undervalued.
Of course, I didn’t buy any, although I did talk to several of my friends who also have an interest in investing and tell them I thought it was a buy.
In early 2006, when I had a few bucks to put into my Roth IRA, I decided not to make the same mistake again, and AAPL rewarded me with the biggest gain in my portfolio, more than doubling. I have to think about whether or not I believe they’ll be a good long term holding–I think they will be a holding for at least a few more years–but they were, by far, the best performer in my portfolio.
I have yet to calculate how this portfolio did overall; it will take me awhile to do so. However, it does show some of the issues with buying individual stocks; some don’t do all that well and some do fantastic and it’s difficult to tell which will do what. There’s no reliable magic formula to say, “This stock will double this year, and this one will fall.” So while you can minimize your risks by researching the stocks and the markets they’re in, there’s no guarantees.
I like to pick individual stocks and I like to try to beat the index, but I know that I am very unlikely to do so. I do so mostly for fun, although there is obviously the possibility of profit–and loss–involved. I keep my investments in individual small relative to my total portfolio to minimize exposing a lot of my total net worth to the volatility inherent with an individual stock–this is asset concentration, the opposite of diversification, which increases risk. When people ask me about investing, I do tell them that if I put the vast majority of my money into highly diversified passively managed index funds but I will put a very small amount of my money into individual stocks at my own risk.
How’d your stocks do this year?